English translation below
Aux États-Unis, une oligarchie politico-économique élue a choisi de sacrifier le genre humain pour son profit immédiat, sur l’autel du changement climatique, en se retirant de l’accord de Paris de décembre 2015 sur le climat.
Cette annonce a eu pour effet immédiat de resserrer les liens des quelques 200 autres pays signataires, l’Union Européenne et la Chine en tête. Les Universités Américaines, les plus grandes villes, et une trentaine d’États américains poursuivent l’effort, avec l'objectif clair de “Make Our Planet Great Again”, rendre à notre planète sa grandeur, selon les termes du Président de la république E. Macron. Reste à examiner s’il est toujours possible, et à quelles conditions, de combattre le changement climatique pour que les générations futures puissent encore vivre sur notre planète.
De la nature humaine
Les biologistes décrivent les êtres humains comme une espèce prédatrice et colonisatrice. Elle croît jusqu'à envahir son environnement entièrement qu'elle épuise peu à peu. Lorsqu’il est totalement épuisé elle se met en quête d’envahir un nouvel environnement qui lui soit propice. Mais aujourd'hui l’homme a envahi toute la planète et l’a en grande partie épuisée.
Le comportement de l’homme fait avant tout qu'il trouve “naturel” de se préoccuper de son seul intérêt propre, et qu'il trouve majoritairement tout aussi “naturel” de se désintéresser du bien collectif commun qu'il a l’habitude de confier aux politiques. Ceux-ci ont institué un système démocratique (ou pas) qui s’assimile à une domination du peuple par une élite économique déconnectée de l’opinion majoritaire. La dépendance de cette élite à l'argent et aux profits est responsable de l'extinction massive des espèces en cours.
L’homme est perpétuellement en guerre avec ses semblables sous tous les prétextes possibles dont le plus ancien est la religion. Les hommes ont été incapables, en des dizaines de milliers d’années, de se débarrasser des guerres. Quand ils échouent à résoudre un problème politique ou économique un peu compliqué, la guerre devient la seule solution de dépasser les difficultés rencontrées. Les hommes sont des spécialistes pour rebâtir sur les décombres fumants de leurs dévastations.
Par son comportement “naturel” l’homme moderne (?) détruit tous les habitats possibles qu'il a envahi, puis colonisé, mais cela ne le prémunit pas de l’extinction, car la Nature ne lui donne pas plus de garantie de survie sur le long terme qu’aux dinosaures.
Empreinte humaine et capitalisme
L’humanité consomme 1,7 fois la capacité de la Terre à se renouveler. Faire décroître cette empreinte bien en-dessous d’une Terre est devenu une question de survie pour l’humanité. Mais, envisage-t-on une décroissance de la consommation humaine ?
Pas du tout, car la croissance est considérée comme indispensable au système capitaliste pour payer des intérêts, des dividendes et des bonus. Même si on décidait de les supprimer au nom de la décroissance, il n’est pas sûr que l’on saurait comment s’y prendre, car nous avons fait du profit un dieu.
L’incapacité de payer les intérêts d’une dette s’appelle un défaut. Quand cette incapacité est généralisée, cela s’appelle un effondrement bancaire systémique. Les banques ne se font plus confiance et ne prêtent plus ; les entreprises font faillite sous le poids des dettes. Si la loi avait séparé les banques de dépôts des banques d’investissements, le citoyen serait supposé ne pas perdre d’argent, ce qui n’est pas le cas aujourd'hui. De toute façon il n'arriverait plus à emprunter. Il ne peut se développer que sur ses économies.
Il en est de même pour les entreprises en période de décroissance : se libérer des dettes, ne plus nuire à l’environnement, dépolluer, faire du neuf avec du vieux.
On peut donc dire que la décroissance nécessaire est incompatible avec le cadre actuel d'un système purement capitaliste.
C’est pourquoi, se débarrasser du capitalisme est devenu une question de survie pour une humanité qui voudrait réduire son empreinte à un niveau soutenable.
Les connaissances scientifiques
La croissance effrénée a enclenché l’accumulation de gaz à effet de serre (GES) dans l'atmosphère, depuis longtemps le dioxyde de carbone (CO2) et plus récemment le méthane (CH4), le protoxyde d’azote (N2O), et bien d'autres. Ces GES ont amené une hausse des températures moyennes, ce qu’on appelle le réchauffement climatique. En mars 2017 notre planète souffrait d’une anomalie de +1,25°C par rapport à l’ère pré-industrielle (avant 1750, définition du GIEC), plus marquée au sol en hémisphère nord à une moyenne record de 2,47°C.
Les conséquences du réchauffement climatique sont parfaitement observables et ressenties par des phénomènes en lente croissance exponentielle : records de sécheresse, inondations, précession des saisons, baisse des récoltes de céréales et de fruits, pénurie et manque d'eau, fontes des glaciers et des pôles, dégel du Cercle polaire Arctique et du continent Antarctique, montée du niveau des océans, acidification et désoxygénation des océans, disparitions des espèces animales marines et terrestres, donc de nos chaînes alimentaires, disparition des forêts tropicales et subpolaires par la déforestation, la réallocation des sols, la sécheresse et les maladies, les feux de forêts déclenchés par la foudre, augmentation des ouragans et typhons en nombre et intensité, les nouveaux phénomènes amplificateurs induits par le réchauffement comme El Niño et les quelques 60 boucles de rétroaction positives.
Les conséquences du réchauffement climatique sont parfaitement observables et ressenties par des phénomènes en lente croissance exponentielle : records de sécheresse, inondations, précession des saisons, baisse des récoltes de céréales et de fruits, pénurie et manque d'eau, fontes des glaciers et des pôles, dégel du Cercle polaire Arctique et du continent Antarctique, montée du niveau des océans, acidification et désoxygénation des océans, disparitions des espèces animales marines et terrestres, donc de nos chaînes alimentaires, disparition des forêts tropicales et subpolaires par la déforestation, la réallocation des sols, la sécheresse et les maladies, les feux de forêts déclenchés par la foudre, augmentation des ouragans et typhons en nombre et intensité, les nouveaux phénomènes amplificateurs induits par le réchauffement comme El Niño et les quelques 60 boucles de rétroaction positives.
Le dégel des calottes glaciaires est irréversible aux deux pôles, au Groenland, dans les glaciers et dans toutes les chaînes de montagne, l’Himalaya étant au premier rang. Au total, au moins 70 mètres de montée du niveau des océans. Mais la lenteur de l’accélération de ces dégels n’est pas brusquement visible dans nos ports et sur nos côtes par une montée de l’eau subite capable de réveiller les consciences. Tout au plus, on reconstruit les maisons sur de plus hauts pilotis et on surélève les rues comme à Miami ou à Long Island.
En Europe, les moissons d’été ont commencé en juin 2017. La sécheresse est passée par là depuis le début de l’année.
Certainement on doit stopper la production des GES, de toute origine. Tout en sachant qu’à la température actuelle, nous ne pouvons plus contrôler un éventuel relâchement de méthane stocké dans les hauts fonds qui bordent l’océan Arctique. Les 50 Gigatonnes de méthane qui sont censés s’y trouver, vont provoquer un bond des températures que les experts qualifient de catastrophique.
Le corps humain est une centrale thermique qui se maintien à 37°C. Il échange avec l'air ambiant. Ce n'est possible que dans certaines combinaisons de température et d'humilité. Sur la Côte d'Azur le corps accepte 40°C avec une humidité de 20%. Dans les zones tropicales une humidité de 90% avec une température de 40°C sera mortel : en quelques heures, le corps humain sera "cuit" de l'intérieur comme de l'extérieur.
Le corps humain est une centrale thermique qui se maintien à 37°C. Il échange avec l'air ambiant. Ce n'est possible que dans certaines combinaisons de température et d'humilité. Sur la Côte d'Azur le corps accepte 40°C avec une humidité de 20%. Dans les zones tropicales une humidité de 90% avec une température de 40°C sera mortel : en quelques heures, le corps humain sera "cuit" de l'intérieur comme de l'extérieur.
Les êtres humains sont parfaitement conscients de l’augmentation de tous ces phénomènes, mais ils n’arrivent pas à se représenter ni la lenteur de cette progression année après année, ni sa croissance exponentielle. Ils pensent qu'une progression lente laisse le temps de revenir plus tard sur le phénomène pour s'en occuper. Mais la progression exponentielle du phénomène va les surprendre tôt ou tard. C'est ce qui fait qu'ils sont toujours en retard dans la lutte contre le réchauffement climatique.
Mais le changement climatique n’attend pas l’homme. Les effets des quelques 60 boucles amplificatrices de rétroaction positive n’ont pas été examinées en détail. Cependant on sait qu’elles sont propres à accélérer (exponentiellement) et à prolonger le réchauffement de la planète. Dès lors, le consensus des experts sur un réchauffement minimum de 3°C à 4°C, difficilement supportable pour l’être humain, sera dépassé avec certitude.
Une alerte connue et publiée fréquemment
Au cours de ces 45 dernières années, l’humanité a été alertée à de nombreuses reprises sur la catastrophe planétaire inévitable qui s’ensuivrait à vouloir poursuivre une croissance économique, énergétique, démographique, sans frein sur une planète aux ressources finies (limitées).
D’après les auteurs, le scénario initial de 1972 se confirme toujours actuellement, bien qu’il soit basé sur des données de l’époque qui décrivent de façon réaliste la seconde moitié du 20ème siècle. On y constate un décrochage avant 2025 de la production industrielle, de la production agricole (nourriture disponible), de l’espérance de vie, du bien-être humain et des ressources non renouvelables de la planète. Pour l'équipe Meadows, la démographie du système-Terre, marqué par l'instabilité de notre civilisation industrielle, mène à un déclin irréversible et incontrôlé à partir de 2030.
Après avoir tenté divers scénarios, les auteurs décrivent, dans un scénario n° 9, une planète qui aurait cherché, à partir de 2002, à stabiliser sa population et sa production industrielle par habitant, et qui aurait investi dans la lutte antipollution, dans la préservation des ressources non renouvelables et dans l’agriculture.
Effondrement
Nous avons vu que l’homme détruit son habitat, la Terre, et qu'il trouve cela “naturel”. Les profits des plus riches, basés sur la dette des plus pauvres, les a entraîné dans une spirale addictive aux profits, d'un capitalisme devenu incompatible avec la lutte contre le changement climatique. Les hommes ont été alertés depuis 45 ans sur l’effondrement qui devait se présenter au début du XXIème siècle, mettant en péril toutes les espèces vivantes de la planète.
Les scientifiques ont produit des centaines de rapports validés par leurs pairs et publiés dans des revues scientifiques comme Science ou Nature. Ces dernières années, plusieurs auteurs ont remis ces rapports en perspective, pour créer un véritable réveil des consciences et voici ma sélection de leurs livres :
Un consensus politique est survenu lors de la COP21 en décembre 2015 pour limiter le réchauffement entre 3°C et 4°C (efforts annoncés par l’ensemble des pays) bien que l’objectif visé officiellement soit de 2°C et si possible 1,5°C. En face de ces objectifs, les mesures de mars 2017 montraient un réchauffement global de 1,25°C par rapport à l’ère pré-industrielle, et de 2,47°C au sol en moyenne dans l’hémisphère nord. Ces chiffres sont à surveiller comme le lait sur le feu.
On sait qu’on a engendré des phénomènes d’accélération et de prolongement du réchauffement qui vont nous entraîner bien au-delà des efforts annoncés. Car nous avions déjà franchi le point de basculement des températures de réchauffement à la fin de l’épisode El Niño, en avril 2016. Au-delà de ce point de basculement on sait qu’il est impossible de revenir aux températures stables d’antan.
Depuis nous sommes entrés en zone inconnue de réchauffement, où nous ne pouvons plus prévoir à quel niveau de température cela s’arrêtera, malgré la géo-ingénierie chimérique, annoncée mais jamais déployée.
En guise de conclusion
Il y a cependant des choses à faire sur le plan local pour créer les conditions résilientes de vie ultérieure éventuelle. Une transition vers une autre société nous oblige à travailler notre imaginaire, donc de nous faire des récits pour inverser ces spirales de violence et de pessimisme. Des récits qui rejettent toute dissonance cognitive et tout déni. Soyons les transitionneurs qui inventent leur propre avenir. Car les initiatives de transition libèrent les gens de ces sentiments d'impuissance tellement toxique et répandue dans la population. L'urgence est de reconstruire un tissu social local solide et vivant, doté d'un climat de confiance, c'est-à-dire un véritable « capital social » qui puisse servir en cas de catastrophe.
Les transitionneurs (qui pensent : « on est tous dans le même bateau ») souvent non-violents, collectivistes, appellent à une transition à grande échelle, car la vie n'a plus de sens si tout s'effondre. Pratiquant l'ouverture et l'inclusion, ils sont convaincus que l'avenir est dans les éco-villages, l'entraide et l'imaginaire de transition. Ils pensent « ensemble on va plus loin ».
Malgré tout, la transition est encore à très petite échelle pour le moment. Et il n’est pas sûr que nous ne soyons pas dépassés par des phénomènes abrupts, en croissance exponentielle, capables d’annihiler les efforts de transition à grande échelle.
Kevin Anderson, professeur d'énergie et de changements climatiques à l'Université de Manchester, soutient qu'il y a 95 % de risques que l'action contre le changement climatique ne soit pas assez robuste pour confiner la croissance du réchauffement de la Terre en dessous de l'objectif de 1,5°C-2°C. Il pense qu'il reste une petite chance de 5% de réussite possible. Paul Jorion, anthropologue et sociologue, estime que le genre humain n’est pas équipé mentalement pour faire face à ce défi qui maintenant semble le dépasser.
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Please apologize the poor translation
An uncontrolled climate change
In the United States, an elected political-economic oligarchy has chosen to sacrifice humanity for its immediate benefit, on the altar of climate change, by withdrawing from the December 2015 climate accord.
The announcement had the immediate effect of strengthening the ties of the 200 other signatory countries, the European Union and China at first. American Universities, the largest cities, and some thirty American states continue the effort, with the clear goal of "Make Our Planet Great Again", were the words of the French President of the Republic E. Macron. It remains to be seen whether it is still possible, and under what conditions, to combat climate change so that future generations can still live on our planet.
Human nature
Biologists describe human beings as a predatory and colonizing species. It grows until it invades its environment, which it exhausts little by little. When it is exhausted, it sets out to invade a new propitious environment. But today man has invaded the whole planet and has largely exhausted it.
Man's behavior is above all that he finds it "natural" to concern himself with his own self-interest, and that he finds mostly just as "natural" to lose interest in the common collective good he is accustomed to entrust to the politicians. They have instituted a democratic system (or not) that is assimilated to a domination of the people by an economic elite disconnected from the majority opinion.
Man is perpetually at war with his fellow men under all possible pretexts, the most ancient of which is religion. Men have been incapable, in tens of thousands years, of getting rid of wars. When they fail to solve a rather complicated political or economic problem, war becomes the only solution to overcome the difficulties encountered. Men are specialists in rebuilding on the smoking rubble of their devastation.
By his "natural" behavior man destroys all the possible habitats that he has invaded and then colonized, but this does not protect him from extinction, for Nature does not give him more guarantee of survival over the long term than the dinosaurs.
Human Footprint and Capitalism
Humanity consumes 1.7 times the capacity of the Earth to renew itself. Decreasing this footprint far below one Earth has become a matter of survival for humanity. But is there a prospect of a decrease in human consumption?
Not at all, because growth is considered indispensable to the capitalist system to pay interest, dividends and bonuses. Even if it were decided to remove them in the name of decreasing, it is not certain that one would know how to go about it.
The inability to pay interest on a debt is called a default. When this disability is widespread, it is called a systemic bank collapse. Banks no longer trust and lend; The companies go bankrupt under the weight of the debts. If the law had separated the deposit banks from the investment banks, the citizen would be presumed not to lose money, which is not the case today. In any case he would no longer be able to borrow. He must save if he wants to develop.
It is the same for companies in a period of decline: to free themselves of debts, no longer harm the environment, clean up, make new with the old.
It can therefore be said that the necessary decrease is incompatible with the present framework of a purely capitalist system.
That is why getting rid of capitalism has become a matter of survival for a humanity that wants to reduce its footprint to a sustainable level.
The announcement had the immediate effect of strengthening the ties of the 200 other signatory countries, the European Union and China at first. American Universities, the largest cities, and some thirty American states continue the effort, with the clear goal of "Make Our Planet Great Again", were the words of the French President of the Republic E. Macron. It remains to be seen whether it is still possible, and under what conditions, to combat climate change so that future generations can still live on our planet.
Human nature
Biologists describe human beings as a predatory and colonizing species. It grows until it invades its environment, which it exhausts little by little. When it is exhausted, it sets out to invade a new propitious environment. But today man has invaded the whole planet and has largely exhausted it.
Man's behavior is above all that he finds it "natural" to concern himself with his own self-interest, and that he finds mostly just as "natural" to lose interest in the common collective good he is accustomed to entrust to the politicians. They have instituted a democratic system (or not) that is assimilated to a domination of the people by an economic elite disconnected from the majority opinion.
Man is perpetually at war with his fellow men under all possible pretexts, the most ancient of which is religion. Men have been incapable, in tens of thousands years, of getting rid of wars. When they fail to solve a rather complicated political or economic problem, war becomes the only solution to overcome the difficulties encountered. Men are specialists in rebuilding on the smoking rubble of their devastation.
By his "natural" behavior man destroys all the possible habitats that he has invaded and then colonized, but this does not protect him from extinction, for Nature does not give him more guarantee of survival over the long term than the dinosaurs.
Human Footprint and Capitalism
Humanity consumes 1.7 times the capacity of the Earth to renew itself. Decreasing this footprint far below one Earth has become a matter of survival for humanity. But is there a prospect of a decrease in human consumption?
Not at all, because growth is considered indispensable to the capitalist system to pay interest, dividends and bonuses. Even if it were decided to remove them in the name of decreasing, it is not certain that one would know how to go about it.
The inability to pay interest on a debt is called a default. When this disability is widespread, it is called a systemic bank collapse. Banks no longer trust and lend; The companies go bankrupt under the weight of the debts. If the law had separated the deposit banks from the investment banks, the citizen would be presumed not to lose money, which is not the case today. In any case he would no longer be able to borrow. He must save if he wants to develop.
It is the same for companies in a period of decline: to free themselves of debts, no longer harm the environment, clean up, make new with the old.
It can therefore be said that the necessary decrease is incompatible with the present framework of a purely capitalist system.
That is why getting rid of capitalism has become a matter of survival for a humanity that wants to reduce its footprint to a sustainable level.
Scientific knowledge
Rampant growth has triggered the accumulation of greenhouse gases (GHGs) in the atmosphere, carbon dioxide (CO2), and more recently methane (CH4), nitrous oxide (N2O), and many others. These GHGs have led to an increase in average temperatures, known as global warming. In March 2017, our planet suffered an anomaly of +1.25°C compared to the pre-industrial era (before 1750, IPCC definition), more pronounced on land in the northern hemisphere at a record average of 2.47°C.
The consequences of global warming are perfectly observable and experienced by slow exponential growth phenomena: drought records, floods, seasonal precariousness, reduced crops of cereals and fruits, shortages of water, melting of glaciers and poles, thawing of the Arctic Circle and the Antarctic continent, rising ocean levels, acidification and deoxygenation of the oceans, disappearance of marine and terrestrial animal species, and therefore of our food chains, disappearance of tropical and sub-polar forests through deforestation, drought and disease, forest fires triggered by lightning, increased hurricanes and typhoons in number and intensity, new wave-induced amplifier phenomena such as El Niño, and some 60 positive feedback loops.
Thawing of ice caps is irreversible at both poles, in Greenland, in glaciers and in all mountain ranges, with the Himalayas in the forefront. In total, at least 70 meters of rising sea level. But the slowness of the acceleration of these thaws is not suddenly visible in our ports and on our coasts by a surge of sudden water capable of awakening consciences. At the most, houses are rebuilt on higher piles and the streets are raised like in Miami or Long Island.
In Europe, summer harvesting began in June 2017. The drought has been there since the beginning of the year.
Certainly we must stop the production of GHGs, from any origin. Knowing that at the current temperature we can no longer control the release of methane from the shallows that border the Arctic Ocean. The 50 gigatonnes of methane that are supposed to be there will cause a surge in temperatures that experts call catastrophic.
The human body is a thermal power plant that maintains at 37°C. It exchanges with the ambient air. This is only possible in certain combinations of temperature and humidity. At the Côte d'Azur the body accepts 40°C with a humidity of 20%. In the tropics a humidity of 90% with a temperature of 40°C will be deadly : in a few hours, the human body will be "cooked" from inside and outside.
Human beings are well aware of the increase in all these phenomena, but they can not imagine the slowness of this progression year after year nor its exponential growth. They think that a slow progression allows the time to come back later on the phenomenon to take care of it. But the exponential progression of the phenomenon will surprise them sooner or later. This is why they are always behind in the fight against global warming.
Climate change does not wait for man. The effects of most positive feedback amplifier loops were not examined in detail. However, they are known to accelerate (exponentially) and prolong global warming. Consequently, the experts' consensus on a minimum warming of 3°C to 4°C, which is difficult to bear for humans, will be exceeded with certainty.
Rampant growth has triggered the accumulation of greenhouse gases (GHGs) in the atmosphere, carbon dioxide (CO2), and more recently methane (CH4), nitrous oxide (N2O), and many others. These GHGs have led to an increase in average temperatures, known as global warming. In March 2017, our planet suffered an anomaly of +1.25°C compared to the pre-industrial era (before 1750, IPCC definition), more pronounced on land in the northern hemisphere at a record average of 2.47°C.
The consequences of global warming are perfectly observable and experienced by slow exponential growth phenomena: drought records, floods, seasonal precariousness, reduced crops of cereals and fruits, shortages of water, melting of glaciers and poles, thawing of the Arctic Circle and the Antarctic continent, rising ocean levels, acidification and deoxygenation of the oceans, disappearance of marine and terrestrial animal species, and therefore of our food chains, disappearance of tropical and sub-polar forests through deforestation, drought and disease, forest fires triggered by lightning, increased hurricanes and typhoons in number and intensity, new wave-induced amplifier phenomena such as El Niño, and some 60 positive feedback loops.
Thawing of ice caps is irreversible at both poles, in Greenland, in glaciers and in all mountain ranges, with the Himalayas in the forefront. In total, at least 70 meters of rising sea level. But the slowness of the acceleration of these thaws is not suddenly visible in our ports and on our coasts by a surge of sudden water capable of awakening consciences. At the most, houses are rebuilt on higher piles and the streets are raised like in Miami or Long Island.
In Europe, summer harvesting began in June 2017. The drought has been there since the beginning of the year.
Certainly we must stop the production of GHGs, from any origin. Knowing that at the current temperature we can no longer control the release of methane from the shallows that border the Arctic Ocean. The 50 gigatonnes of methane that are supposed to be there will cause a surge in temperatures that experts call catastrophic.
The human body is a thermal power plant that maintains at 37°C. It exchanges with the ambient air. This is only possible in certain combinations of temperature and humidity. At the Côte d'Azur the body accepts 40°C with a humidity of 20%. In the tropics a humidity of 90% with a temperature of 40°C will be deadly : in a few hours, the human body will be "cooked" from inside and outside.
Human beings are well aware of the increase in all these phenomena, but they can not imagine the slowness of this progression year after year nor its exponential growth. They think that a slow progression allows the time to come back later on the phenomenon to take care of it. But the exponential progression of the phenomenon will surprise them sooner or later. This is why they are always behind in the fight against global warming.
Climate change does not wait for man. The effects of most positive feedback amplifier loops were not examined in detail. However, they are known to accelerate (exponentially) and prolong global warming. Consequently, the experts' consensus on a minimum warming of 3°C to 4°C, which is difficult to bear for humans, will be exceeded with certainty.
A known and frequently published alert
Over the past 45 years, humanity has been alerted on numerous occasions to the inevitable planetary catastrophe that would ensue to pursue an economic, energetic, demographic, unrestrained growth on a planet with finite (limited) resources.
So, in 1972, Donella Meadows, Dennis Meadows, Jorgen Randers and 14 other MIT researchers put the Theory of Systems Dynamics into equations for modeling growth. The Theory of Systems Dynamics stems from the work of Jay Forrester, a professor at MIT, the designer of the Word3 computer model. The original version of Word3 was adapted in Word3-91 and the results, similar to those of 1972, were published under "Beyond the Limits" in 1992. A new adaptation in Word3-03 resulted in the results published in 2004 in English, which we read in French in 2012 under "Les limites à la croissance (dans un monde fini)" which is a French translation of "The Limits to Growth, The 30-Year Update". It was the update in 2004, 32 years later, of the first famous Meadows Report of 1972 which was inspired by Aurelio Peccei, founder of the Club of Rome. As in 1972, the model shows a collapse between 2015 and 2025.
According to the authors, the initial scenario of 1972 is still valid, although it is based on data from the period that realistically describes the second half of the 20th century. There is a decline in industrial production, agricultural production (food availability), life expectancy, human well-being and non-renewable resources on the planet by 2025. For the Meadows team, the demography of the Earth system, marked by the instability of our industrial civilization, leads to an irreversible and uncontrolled decline from 2030 onwards.
After a series of scenarios, the authors describe in a scenario No. 9, a planet which, since 2002, would have sought to stabilize its population and industrial production per capita, and which would have invested in pollution control, conservation of non-renewable resources and in agriculture.
Collapse
We have seen that man destroys his habitat, the Earth, and finds it "natural". The profits of the wealthiest, based on the debt of the poorest, have led them into an addictive spiral of profits, a capitalism incompatible with the fight against climate change. Men have been alerted for 45 years on the collapse that was to occur at the beginning of the 21st century, jeopardizing all the living species on the planet.
Scientists have produced hundreds of peer-reviewed reports published in scientific journals such as Science or Nature. In recent years, several authors have put these reports in perspective, to create a true awakening of consciousness and here is my selection of their books:
A political consensus was reached at COP21 in December 2015 to limit warming to between 3°C and 4°C (efforts announced by all countries) although the official objective is 2°C and if possible 1.5°C. In response to these objectives, the March 2017 measures showed an overall warming of 1.25°C compared to the pre-industrial era and an average of 2.47°C on land in the northern hemisphere. These figures are to be watched as milk on fire.
We know that we have generated phenomena of acceleration and prolongation of the warming which will lead us well beyond the announced efforts. Because we had already crossed the tipping point of the warming temperatures at the end of the El Niño episode in April 2016. Beyond this tipping point it is known that it is impossible to return to the stable temperatures of yore .
Since we have entered the unknown zone of warming, where we can not predict at what temperature level this will stop, despite chimerical geo-engineering, announced but never deployed.
As a conclusion
There are, however, things to be done at the local level to create the resilient conditions for possible future life. A transition to another society forces us to have our imagination working, so to tell stories to reverse these spirals of violence and pessimism. Stories that reject any cognitive dissonance and denial. Let us be the transitioners who invent their own future. Because transition initiatives free people from these feelings of impotence so toxic and widespread in the population. The urgent need is to rebuild a solid and vibrant local social fabric, with a climate of trust, that is to say a real "social capital" which can be used in case of disaster.
Transitioners (who think "we are all in the same boat") often non-violent, collectivist, call for a transition on a large scale, because life no longer makes sense if everything collapses. Practicing openness and inclusion, they are convinced that the future lies in eco-villages, mutual aid and the transitional imagination. They think "together we go further".
Nevertheless, the transition is still very small at the moment. And it is not certain that we are not overtaken by abrupt, exponential growth phenomena, capable of annihilating large-scale transition efforts.
Kevin Anderson, Professor of Energy and Climate Change at the University of Manchester, argues that there is a 95% risk that action against climate change is not robust enough to contain the growth of global warming below the target of 1.5°C to 2°C. He thinks there is still a small 5% chance of success. Paul Jorion, an anthropologist and sociologist, believes that mankind is not mentally equipped to face this challenge that now seems to go beyond it.
Over the past 45 years, humanity has been alerted on numerous occasions to the inevitable planetary catastrophe that would ensue to pursue an economic, energetic, demographic, unrestrained growth on a planet with finite (limited) resources.
So, in 1972, Donella Meadows, Dennis Meadows, Jorgen Randers and 14 other MIT researchers put the Theory of Systems Dynamics into equations for modeling growth. The Theory of Systems Dynamics stems from the work of Jay Forrester, a professor at MIT, the designer of the Word3 computer model. The original version of Word3 was adapted in Word3-91 and the results, similar to those of 1972, were published under "Beyond the Limits" in 1992. A new adaptation in Word3-03 resulted in the results published in 2004 in English, which we read in French in 2012 under "Les limites à la croissance (dans un monde fini)" which is a French translation of "The Limits to Growth, The 30-Year Update". It was the update in 2004, 32 years later, of the first famous Meadows Report of 1972 which was inspired by Aurelio Peccei, founder of the Club of Rome. As in 1972, the model shows a collapse between 2015 and 2025.
According to the authors, the initial scenario of 1972 is still valid, although it is based on data from the period that realistically describes the second half of the 20th century. There is a decline in industrial production, agricultural production (food availability), life expectancy, human well-being and non-renewable resources on the planet by 2025. For the Meadows team, the demography of the Earth system, marked by the instability of our industrial civilization, leads to an irreversible and uncontrolled decline from 2030 onwards.
After a series of scenarios, the authors describe in a scenario No. 9, a planet which, since 2002, would have sought to stabilize its population and industrial production per capita, and which would have invested in pollution control, conservation of non-renewable resources and in agriculture.
Collapse
We have seen that man destroys his habitat, the Earth, and finds it "natural". The profits of the wealthiest, based on the debt of the poorest, have led them into an addictive spiral of profits, a capitalism incompatible with the fight against climate change. Men have been alerted for 45 years on the collapse that was to occur at the beginning of the 21st century, jeopardizing all the living species on the planet.
Scientists have produced hundreds of peer-reviewed reports published in scientific journals such as Science or Nature. In recent years, several authors have put these reports in perspective, to create a true awakening of consciousness and here is my selection of their books:
A political consensus was reached at COP21 in December 2015 to limit warming to between 3°C and 4°C (efforts announced by all countries) although the official objective is 2°C and if possible 1.5°C. In response to these objectives, the March 2017 measures showed an overall warming of 1.25°C compared to the pre-industrial era and an average of 2.47°C on land in the northern hemisphere. These figures are to be watched as milk on fire.
We know that we have generated phenomena of acceleration and prolongation of the warming which will lead us well beyond the announced efforts. Because we had already crossed the tipping point of the warming temperatures at the end of the El Niño episode in April 2016. Beyond this tipping point it is known that it is impossible to return to the stable temperatures of yore .
Since we have entered the unknown zone of warming, where we can not predict at what temperature level this will stop, despite chimerical geo-engineering, announced but never deployed.
As a conclusion
There are, however, things to be done at the local level to create the resilient conditions for possible future life. A transition to another society forces us to have our imagination working, so to tell stories to reverse these spirals of violence and pessimism. Stories that reject any cognitive dissonance and denial. Let us be the transitioners who invent their own future. Because transition initiatives free people from these feelings of impotence so toxic and widespread in the population. The urgent need is to rebuild a solid and vibrant local social fabric, with a climate of trust, that is to say a real "social capital" which can be used in case of disaster.
Transitioners (who think "we are all in the same boat") often non-violent, collectivist, call for a transition on a large scale, because life no longer makes sense if everything collapses. Practicing openness and inclusion, they are convinced that the future lies in eco-villages, mutual aid and the transitional imagination. They think "together we go further".
Nevertheless, the transition is still very small at the moment. And it is not certain that we are not overtaken by abrupt, exponential growth phenomena, capable of annihilating large-scale transition efforts.
Kevin Anderson, Professor of Energy and Climate Change at the University of Manchester, argues that there is a 95% risk that action against climate change is not robust enough to contain the growth of global warming below the target of 1.5°C to 2°C. He thinks there is still a small 5% chance of success. Paul Jorion, an anthropologist and sociologist, believes that mankind is not mentally equipped to face this challenge that now seems to go beyond it.
